The Guardian “spin” is the most worrying aspect of the whole thing for Labour, probably. If the media honeymoon is over with media already, the public honeymoon will quickly go the same way!

Labour holding steady, I agree. Tory increase will leave Cameron relieved that public are still prepared to listen to him when he’s in the public eye. There was no guarantee that would be the case.

Libs - Oh dear!

Compared to the Sunday Mirror ICM poll the changes are Con +1 Lab N/C LibDem N/C , compare to last ICM Guardian poll Con +2 LAB +1 LibDem -2 .

The “spin” you refer to is simply a newspaper trying to make a fairly dull poll result look exciting, coupled with The Guardian’s propensity for getting things wrong. I wouldn’t read anything more into it than that: Gordon Brown’s hacks are more than capable of working out that these poll results mean the opposite of what the Guardian claims they mean.

I very much doubt that public opinion is influenced in the slightest by The Guardian - and certainly not over a story like this published on a bank holiday Monday. Nor is it likely that The Guardian’s editorial stance is to be especially hostile to Gordon Brown!

It will depend on the details, but if the Guardian is saying Browns majority could be in trouble, then it may be that the regional breakdown is showing that much of the Brown bounce is concentrated where Labour are already safe, and is weak or weakening where the Tories need to win.

It could also mean that on current polling the squeeze on the Libdems will give the Tories more seats than would have been expected, although that might not change the majority.

I doubt the SNP even on good polling (and by implication this has the “others” below 10%) coud cut more that three or four off of labours majority.

Peter.

So, its the detail thats more interesting than the poll! Tories with a lead on health and the economy is pretty amazing! That 55% at the height of Browns popularity still think its “time for a change” is worrying for Labour.

Obviously the best thing for Labour though, is that the Brown Bounce is still holding steady. Again, no sign that its increasing, but no sign that its dropping. Which really makes The Guardian’s headline all the more strange. Looks to me like The Guardian has decided its time to level the playing field, and bring the Brown Honeymoon to a premature end. If the rest of the media follow, I don’t fancy Browns lead holding up beyond October…

[…] Clark ICM August Poll » This Summary is from an article posted at polling Report on Sunday, August 26, 2007 This […]

I think this latest ICM poll with a 1% gain for the Tories goes even further in highlighting that the 10 point lead from 2 weeks ago by YouGov was a rogue poll . As i predicted previously - Brown will not make any attempt at an early general election - 2009 at the earliest !
I stand by my predictions that the “Brown” boost will fade away during September - a 5 point lead for Labour at this stage is abmissmal .
I also think that the predicted swing to Labour in London is not realistic - polls for London Mayor contradict this .
As for Labour doing well in the north of England - this too is not borne out when looking at the recent council elections in England .

I agree with GIN about the Liberals - they need to sort their act out or else the next election will truly be a two horse race , with the Tories and Labour sharing their votes out between them - the bulk going to the Tories from whence they originally came .

I see only 34 days left before Mike Richardsons,well repeated fade away is complete.

October 1st,is when the Tories show a lead in the polls,so he says.

Only time will tell….VERY SHORTLY….Tic Toc Tic Toc.

Surely, as has already been inferred and commented on, the fact is that Labour may do less well in Scotland due to the strength of the Scots Nats. Its vote could hold up well, and even increase, where they are already quite strong. Best wait until the holidays are over.

There is an issue for the pollsters here. The one thing everyone agrees on is that there won’t be a UNS next time, and regional polling, if it can be done well, could be a very marketable product. This would seem to be, on the face of it, an opportunity for YouGov, whose cost-per-head is presumably lower than that of the face-to-facers or telephone pollsters.

It is interesting that the Labour lead has fallen, which probably means the Brown Bounce is beginning its end.
I think the chance of an October election is getting slimmer, not least because the SNP is getting stronger on the PM’s home turf. I suspect there will be a hung parliament at the very least when the election does occur. I also think the LibDems are in for their worst result since 1992 or possibly even 1979.

Hi - This mornings news mon 27th August stated that Gordon Brown was geting more popular and this could aid Labour in regaining its foot hold. If Gordon truely wants to make his mark he should consider addressing the disparity between the “haves and the haves not” in this country. Set the bar so that wages are comparible to MP’s so the minimum wage will come up and the maximum wage will come down. Gordon should cap heads of firms taking a huge cut when the man on the floor takes barely enough to support his family. Is anyone suprised that we have disparate sections of society who do not feel any alleigance to its laws and loyalty to its wellbeing. Start addressing the causes of poverty and dispair Gordon and you will raise this country out of the pit.

A minor point, but

‘Labour led on being likely to deliver rising house prices’

wouldn’t necessarily be a positive if you were hoping to become a first-time buyer.
A growing number of people are, apparently, and the few I know are certainly feeling despondent about their chances of getting onto the ladder. A party that could convince them they could do something about it - ie bring down property prices, or at least control them - might well pick up their votes, since housing is currently their number one quality-of-life issue. Or so they say.
Anecdotal, but some research on the subject might be interesting.

Mike Richardson says that a 5-point lead for Labour is ‘abmissmal’. Assuming he means ‘abysmal’, I think he is completely off track - any party showing a consistent, apparently solid lead in the polls after 10 years in power is amazing! He also has no evidence for his mooted dwindiling/disappearance of the lead, as Tony Jones hints…

I doubt Brown would call an election while their numbers are so bad in Scotland.

Mike Richardson - Why do on it seems every poll that comes out,claim that every positive born out of it for the Conservatives is proof they will win the next election,but on the same poll anything that is positive for thew other too parties is rubbished and oh so wrong?

Do you work for Conservative Central Office,because every post seems so biased it’s untrue.

Scotland and Wales? Scotland and Wales? What sort of electoral region is that? The two countries don’t even share a border!

The Grauniad’s figures for the 2005 election in Wales and Scotland are wrong.
The actual figures were: Lab 40.7%, LDem 21%, Oth 20.3%, Con 17.9%.
The figures implied in the little map (the false Labour figure was also written in the article) that went with the story are: Lab 43%, Oth 24%, Con 19%, LDem 14%

Alun - they are wrong for every region. I think the changes are from the aggregate regional breakdown of the vote in ICM’s polls during the 2005 election campaign, not from actual result of the 2005 election.

TONY JONES :-

Thank you for the ticking clock - i don’t think you will need to wait till the end of September to see a steady drop of the Labour lead - the media are at last turning the anti Tory bias on Brown where it belongs .

Very sad for the Labour party that they were ONCE the party that were trusted with the NHS - NOT anymore according to this latest poll - nor law and order - and they just happen to be two of the most important things on the minds of the British people along with immigration !!

Something must be badly wrong with this country when this government are presiding over the highest levels for 30 years of British people leaving the country and the highest levels of incoming migrants !! I think it used to be called the “Brain Drain” under the last disasterous Labour government in the 70’s . Deserting a sinking ship .

I can see many similarities between this new Brown regime and the 1970’s regime of Callaghan - both have inherited a crisis and both will bring the country to it’s knees by the time they leave office - Callaghan finally to the relief of the British people in 1979 - this time we will have to wait till 2009 .

CHARLIE :-

I agree with you - it’s hardly a great vote catcher from first time buyers that Labour are to be trusted to bump house prices up even further - if the American house price explosion hits here with their high mortgage rates - the whole housing market will be destroyed .

CHRIS C. :-

I think that you will not find a lead of 5% for a new leader of a party is good at all !! John Major had figures way above that for a longer period and won the next election against all the odds and the polls .

I think i do have evidence of a Labour levelling off in the polls - the YouGov poll was a rogue poll - only one party has increased their share in the latest poll - the Conservatives by 1% - for Labour to be whooping and hollering after 10 years and a new leader - they should be on a steady 10% lead over a long period - and average of 5% as i have stated before is abysmal (thank you for your help with the spelling) . Incidently - as you helped me with my spelling perhaps i could help you - i think you meant “dwindling” NOT “dwindiling” !!

TINA FRANK :-

Thank you responding to my blog - much appreciated . It’s a pity that because i can see the obvious in the polls and recent elections - i state the obvious and can see that Labour are now in their death throws - be it a slow process - it is happening and will continue till they call an election in 2009 when their ratings in the polls will be as low as Michael Foot’s were in the 80’s - mid to high 20’s in the polls .

No - i do not work for the Conservative party as you suggest - wish i did - after all they are the only party with money in the coffers to pay me if i did - not verging on bankruptcy as the Labour Party are . I have no political allegances even though you may think so - it’s just I - Like millions of others think it’s time for a change and long overdue!

A 5% lead isn’t abysmal, but I would offer that its not brilliant, either. Its OK, but I don’t believe its enough so that you’d gamble an early election on it. We’ll see what the other polls that are coming this week have to say, but it looks as though the Bounce has peaked and is now leveling off. If that is the case, 5-6% looks to be the peak on the bounce. Thats alright, but not brilliant and wouldn’t take very long to deflate.

I still think The Guardian’s spin on the poll is the most concerning aspect for Labour supporters. We’re seeing the Murdoch press becoming very critical with Brown over Europe. Now The Guardian is spinning a poll thats OK into something bad for Labour. It looks to me as though Browns media honeymoon is over already, I’m afraid.

(POSTED AGAIN WITHOUT SPELLING ERRORS )

Mike Richardson Things are getting better with Labour than Poor Old Thatcherite Tories!

New Labour New Britain

Another 10 Years of New Labour Power and then a Coalition with the New Liberals with Alternative Vote Plus keeping the Tories out for ever!

Mike Richardson do think the Tories will win this one no chance even a Hung Parliament Labour will still be largest party and doing a deal with Lib Dems on Electoral Reform possible Alternative Vote Plus or Additional Member System.

Keeping the Conservatives out of power for 20 Years.

Alternative Vote is fairer way electing someone in the Constituency with Required 50% or More to win the seat.

That’s why Peter Hain and Alan Johnson want a way to keep the Tories out for least for 10 years with Alternative Vote or Alternative Vote Plus?

Other supporters are Alan Milburn and James
Plaskitt.

There are 21 Labour Marginal Seats in the South of England which could go to Conservative with just a 2% Swing to the Conservative from Labour.

1.Crawley
2.Gillingham & Rainham
3.Croydon Central
4.Battersea
5.Harlow
6.Portsmouth North
7.Hove
8.Milton Keynes South
9.Dartford
10.Stroud
11.Bristol North West
12.Hastings & Rye
13.Corby
14.Brighton Kemptown
15.South Basildon & East Thurrock
16.Swindon South
17.Northampton South
18.Dorset South
19.Ealing Central & Acton
20.Milton Keynes North
21.Watford

Other Marginal seats you have Watch outside the south if Labour lose to Conservative are…

1.Aberconwy
2.Chester City
3.Loughborough
4.Cardiff North
5.Calder Valley
6.Stourbridge
7.Colne Valley
8.Vale of Glamorgan (Up to Swing of 2%)
9.Redditch
10.Broxtowe
11.Burton
12.High Peak
13.Pendle
14.Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
15.Birmingham Edgbaston
16.Bury north
17.Wolverhampton South West
18.Ribble South
19.Dumfries & Galloway
20.Tamworth
21.Derbyshire South (Up to 3% Swing)

These Seats are vulnerable of swing 0f 3%

The Seats you need to watch out for are Cardiff North, Birmingham Edgbaston, Dumfries & Galloway and Chester City.

There are 42 Vulnerable Labour Marginal seats which could go to Conservative with Swing of 3%.

Then there are 29 Vulnerable Labour Marginal Seats which could go to Conservative with a 2% swing.

Then there are 12 Vulnerable Labour Marginal Seats which could go to Conservative with 1% swing.

The Liberal Democrat Marginal Seats in the South with a 3% swing are….

1.Romsey & Southampton North
2.Cheltenham
3.Eastleigh
4.St Austell & Newquay
5.Carshalton & Wallington
6.Chippenham
7.Somerton & Frome
8.Hereford & South Herefordshire
9.Taunton Deane
10.Torbay

Other 2 seats outside the South are
Tory Targets are.

1.York Outer
2.Westmorland & Lonsdale

Other Seats to watch for the Conservatives want to gain from Liberal Democrat are….

1.Sutton & Cheam
2.Richmond Park
3.Cheadle
4.Portsmouth South
5.Leeds North West
6.Brecon & Radnorshire
7.Southport
8.Mid Dorset & North Poole
9.Devon North
10.Camborne & Redruth (Up to a Swing of 6%)

But Don’t think Oxford West & Abingdon will go to Conservative because the MP in this area will hold on because he is a very good MP for this area. Its Possible than the Liberal Democrats will gain Oxford East as well to make Oxford like Cambridge a Liberal Student’s City with good intellectuals.
The Liberals I think control Oxford City council just like Cambridge does as well.

Andrew Smith is a good MP for Oxford East and is Mainstream Labour and in this seat there are working class areas in this.

Labour Target Seats which Conservative Hold in which Brown wants get them back after Bad 2005.

The Seats are.
Conservative Hold Which Labour need to gain?

1.Sittingbourne & Sheepey
2.Shipley
3.Clwyd West
4.Kettering
5.Hemel Hempstead
6.Somerset North East
7.Rochester & Strood
8.Gravesham
9.Wirral West
10.Thanet South (Swing Up to 1%)
11.Preseli Pembrokeshire
12.Reading East
13.Enfield North
14.Finchley & Golders Green
Cthis is Vulnerable Seat)
(A Swing about 1% will get this?)
15.Wellingborough (The Same goes to this 1?)
16.The Wrekin
17.Staffordshire Moorlands
18.Selby & Ainsty
19.Scarborough & Whitby
20.Enfield Southgate
21.Filton & Bradley Stoke
22.St Albans
23.Shrewsbury & Atcham
24.Dumfriesshire + Clydesdale & Tweeddale
25.Ilford North (A Swing of 2.5% will get these.)
26.Forest of Dean
27.Putney
28.Basingstoke
29.Wimbledon
30.Beverley & Holderness (Swing up to 3%)

Labour Target Seats need to Get off the Lib Dem?

1.Manchester Witherington
2.Bristol West (Up to a Swing of 1%)
3.Leeds North West ( Up to Swing of 2%)
4.Hornsey & Wood green
5.Birmingham Yardley
6.Chesterfield ( A Swing up to 3%)
7.Camborne & Redruth
8.Dunbartonshire East
9.Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathsprey
(A Swing up to 5% will get these)
10.Cambridge (Unlikely to get again!)
11.York Outer
12.Cardiff Central (A Swing of 8%) (Unlikely)
13.Eastleigh (A Swing of 9%) (Unlikely to Get)

Really there is 10 Labour Lib Dem Held Targets up to York Outer!
6 Real Chances up to Chesterfield!
3 Vulnerable ones & more likely to get 5 though?

Rugby is con Target as well! that means 43 Targets

Then down 30 targets, then down to 12?

Labour are Targeting 30 Tory Held Seats & Targeting 10 Liberal Democrat Held Seats & 1 Scottish Nationalist(SNP) Seat & 1 Respect Seat & 1 Welsh Independent Seat in the Welsh Valleys.
In Total that’s 43 Labour Targets.

More likely get 5 MP’s off the Lib Dems and could get 13 MP’s off the Conservative and 2 seats off Respect and Welsh Independent.

That means 20 Labour Gains plus 347 Equals 367 could lose 17 losses to Conservative and Nationalists or Lib Dem leaving them with 350 MP’s . A good Working Overall Majority of 50 which Mr Brown will be pleased about!

“Alternative Vote is fairer way electing someone in the Constituency with Required 50% or More to win the seat.”

That it is :), Kevin

The Likely Result of General Election will be

Labour 37% 340 MP Seats
Conservative 35% 235 MP Seats
Liberal Democrat 18% 42 MP Seats
Others 10% 33 MP Seats
(SNP 10 MP Seats & Plaid Cymru 5 MP Seats)
18 Northern Ireland MP Seats.

A Labour Overall Majority of 30 over Other Parties.

This is the Best Case Scenario which Brwon will pleased about not to have majority less than 30?

No Respect and No Welsh independent lose to Labour and No Kidderminster Health Concern lose To Conservative!!!!

The Worst Case Scenario is Hung Parliament

With Labour Neck and Neck with Tories with some Tactical Voting possible in the South of England.
South East & Home Counties for Example is likely case due Greedy Conservative Floating Voters and Ex Tories coming back from Liberal Democrats and New Labour.

Labour 36% 320 MP Seats lose to (T.V)in the South.
Conservative 36% 250 MP Seats (Gain in the South.)
Lib Dem 18% 45 MP Seats
Others 10% 35 MP Seats

The Worst Case Scenario Result for New Labour

If a Major Situation like in 1992.

Labour 37% 335 MP Seats
Conservative 36% 240 MP Seats
Lib Dem 17% 40 MP Seats
Others 10% 35 MP Seats

A Labour Majority of 20 Seats.

Not what Brown wants but He knows next time find a way changing voting system to suit Labour to prevent a Tory Victory could be 2012 or 2013?

Please Mike Richardson and Gin and Dave Hawk and Anthony Wells send me your Comments.

Do you need to make 6 consecutive posts would be my comment.

As far as “such and such a party winning is impossible” as your claim (and a claim made in reverse by others - its nonsense. The Tories can win the next election, Labour can win it. Or there could be a Hung Parliament with a coalition. Or a minority government. The Lib-Dems could be squeezed to near oblivion resulting in a close race with one party having majority and another being not too far behind - or they could surge and be king makers or partners in government.

To rule any option out at this stage, in this Parliament, is wishful thinking not logic.

With the evidence through most of this parliaments polls so far (pre and post-Brown) showing a squeeze on the Lib-Dems this could help either party achieve a majority rather than a minority government.

KEVIN RODGERS :-

I did do a response earlier today - but twice it did’nt appear on here - I will try again tomorrow all being well to respond to the interesting comments above from yourself and others . This time hopefully it will appear technology allowing !

Oh what the heck - why wait until tomorrow - there are too many comments directed towards me to ignore !

TONY JONES :-

Thank you very much for the ticking clock - but i think that you won’t need to wait until the end of September to see the polls turning quite dramatically against Brown - Time will tell as you say . Already in this latest poll and the more indepth one about what concerns the electorate - the two main issues - the NHS & Crime the Tories were ahead of Labour - now that’s a slap in the face for the party that founded the NHS and gave 24 hours to save it in 1997 !!

CHARLIE :-

I have to agree with you

Labour are doing well on increasing house prices - that should get the first time buyer voting Labour - I think NOT ! Labour have made sure that it’s virtually impossible for young buyers to get onto the housing market .If the mortgage rates continue to rise we will also see a lot more repossesions in 2008 .

CHRIS C :-

Thank you so much for the spelling lesson - but i stick to the FACT that a 5 point lead by a new Prime Minister after 1 month in office is ABYSMAL compared with winning new Prime Ministers like John Major who was on double figures for a long time after taking over from Margaret Thatcher . Brown should be on consistent double figures not a one off rogue figure by YouGov 2 weeks ago .

As you did me the favour of correcting my spelling - i am going to do you the courtesy of returning the favour - i think you meant “dwindling” not “dwindiling” in your comments !!

TINA FRANK :-

No , I do not work for Conservative head office or any other political party - i base all my views on the obvious and take note of polls , trends , recent elections and the fact that the country wants and needs a change - one for the better . If I did work for the Conservatives , at least there would be a good chance of getting paid for the job - they are not on the verge of bankruptcy as the Labour Party are - i think that is mostly down to a lack of Labour Party members & confidence in them !

KEVIN RODGERS :-

Wow - 6 entries and 2 devoted to me - Thank you ! Obviously i have to respond .

You say “New Labour , New Britain” - well not according to Brown - he has abolished the “NEW” part !! As for the slogan used up to now - being socialist and hiding under Tories clothing and calling yourself “NEW Labour” to con your way into power in 1997 did the trick then - but won’t work again . Once Labour MP’s see their marginal seats under threat the old rifts between right and left will split Labour wide open . Now that Blair has gone - the left will take over the party again under Brown - all hell will break out when they don’t get what they want - let’s watch and enjoy the implosion !!

You say that the Liberals and Labour will join forces to keep the Tories out (well that’s democratic - NOT)- as i have quoted before - that happened in the 70’s with the Lib/Lab pact , all that did was destroy them both creating the new party the SDP - who also eventually disappeared . It also happened in Scotland - look at the mess Scotland got into with corruption and spending out of control - the result an SNP majority and Labour with egg on their face - GET REAL Kevin - no way will Labour ever risk joining the Liberals - it would be political suicide again .

As for the MP’s you quote like Peter Hain (he is power mad and will eventually put the knife into Brown as he did to his own people in South Africa then left a mess behind while he enjoyed the good life in Britain)and the others you mention are small fry - they will be yesterdays news in 2009 when the Tories win the election .

You say 10 to 20 more years of Labour would be your dream - that would be a nightmare for the rest of Britain unless you were an asylum seeker taking advantage of Labours last manifesto offering and open door to the whole world while we are going through another “Brain Drain” like the last time Labour were in power in the 70’s - latest news saying that more people are leaving Britain than have for 30 years and more are arriving - why would so many want to leave if Labour have done such a great job . If they did (pray not)stay in power for another 10 to 20 years - the only reason would be the immigrant population voting for them as they do as a thank you for letting them in .

But no - as there are still enough sane people left in this country - Kevin , there is light at the end of the tunnel and you will see a Conservative government in power with a substantial majority in 2009 .

After comparing the latest poll breakdowns by regions against the 2005 results on electoral calculus you get the following results

Area Con (+/-) Lab (+/-)

Sc,Wa 18 +0.3 36 - 4.7
N,NW,NE 26 -1.4 47 +1.5
EM,WM,E 40 +2.0 37 +0.9
SE,SW 48 +2.5 28 +0.6
Lon 34 +2.1 48 +8.9

Bearing in mind the Tories need to do well in the North and London on order to stand a chance of winning these results aren’t so good for them, espc as gains are from the Lib Dems rather than Labour.. Something the Lib Dems will be aware of and will be concerned… Time will tell, but the Lib Dems may suddenly warm to LAbour.

Electoral Calculus has Labour about 6.59% ahead of the Tories, some people here have said this is bad others have said this is good. But how does this compare with the mid term polls for the Tories when they were in their 3rd mid term?

Just back from holiday but I see nothing has changed….folk are still spinning polls to suit their political bias. What do I think?
1 I underestimated the extent of the ‘Brown’ bounce because in common with many others I did not listen to the wise words of Anthony Wells.
2 Brown got deserved good marks for his public appearances after the disasters that hit the UK in July
2 The opposition could do nothing about the situation but grin and bear it. Predictably some unreconstructed Tories then turned their guns on Cameron.
3 The Lib Dems continued their remorseless decline.
So what does that all add up to? Not a lot. For all the mocking at Mark Richardson’s comments above I suspect he may well have the last laugh Kevin, Chris and co. Yes it is just as likely that the polls will return to where they were in May as not. I remain convinced that Brown won’t call an election until 2010 but heck it will be great fun arguing about that until then!!!

Gary: Why compare apples with oranges? That Labour did worse and the Tories better than the mid-term results when the Tories were in power means nothing compared to today since the roles are reversed and the people involved are different. Labour did worse and the Tories better than the mid-term results of the last two Parliament’s as well when Labour have been in power.

But this is a new Parliament again, the people are different again, anything could happen.

Jake: If the LD’s visibly warm to Labour then that could cost them dozens of marginal LD/CON seats, primarily in the South.

Is it just me or has life got a lot more difficult since Tony Blair left office?

Things went slightly askew with my spam trap yesterday - hence the double posts from some people above!

Mike Richardson: I disagree that record numbers of people leaving and arriving equates to Labour failure. I’m happy to credit many things to Labour failure, but never that. Perhaps its just yet more evidence of the increasingly global world that we live in?

As borders come down and globalisation continues both numbers will continue to rise. As a Conservative I believe in small government and choice for individuals: I don’t see why people should be locked by government regulations into living in the nation they just happened to be born into. Why they can’t choose to live where they please.

More people taking control of their lives and either coming or going? Good! And long may it continue!

“South East & Home Counties for Example is likely case due Greedy Conservative Floating Voters and Ex Tories coming back from Liberal Democrats and New Labour.”

I take offence at being called greedy just becuase I support the Tories, it’s a typical socialist view to have a go at those who have done well! If you work hard, doing long hours, possibly putting your homwe on the line and creating employment to build up a company and save money rather than waste it down the pub you get called greedy.

I worked hard, climbing the ladder at work, often doing 60 hour weeks and no holidays for over 5 years, in order to pay off my mortgage (which I did three years ago at the age of 39) and I now enjoy a reasonable standard of living. Why should the state tax me more and more just becuase I chose to achieve what I have?? If people are not prepared to make sacrifices to better their lot tough. I have no objection to paying tax to help those who genuinely need it but I’m fed up with having support the scroungers who dont want to get off their backsides and WORK.

And before you say I’m some rabbid right winger, for many years I was a Liberal Democrat(formerly Liberal)including four years as a councillor but I changed parties (as have many others in last year or so) becuase I just could not support the LD’s tax and spend policies, which are worse than Labours!

And as a former LD councillor & constituency secretary I confidently predict that if the LD’s got into bed with Labour it would split the party, with even some MP’s leaving them and joining the Tories. Non LD’s do not realise how deep the Liberal & SDP divide still is and it’s apparent that the SDP faction is now in control.

No-one’s thought about this one yet; set your minds back to 1978/79. What if there is a coalition government in London but a minority one and (as the Tories are flagging up) 20 Scot Nats MPs can vote through legislation against the wishes of a majority of English MPs?
Now that would be a nightmare for Brown. The SNP can vote with him (meaning no collusion with Tories) and by so doing destroy him.
Perfect conditions for a move towards a referendum, no?

I’ve always thought the Brown Bounce was overblown - and I think that the 10 point lead will be seen as the high water mark. Brown’s economy was based on unsustainable levels of debt: and the appalling waste on pet projects and bureaucracy, coupled with the scandalous neglect of the MOD and the looming problems on the European Treaty will cause problems that no ammount of looking tough will solve. We shall see.

Phil. That may be true, but if there are electoral pacts made the gains elsewhere may outweigh the losses in the south!

Regarding comparing polls, its far more accurate to compare like polls because of the differing systems they use to weight the results.

Also a saturday or sunday election may increase the Labour turnout!

Tbh there are too many viarables to play with to be able to call a result at present.

If I was Gordon Brown I’d not call an election with only a 5% lead unless I had to. No doubt the next few weeks worth of polls will be eagerly awaited, since if he wants a general election this year, he’s got to make a decision quite soon.

Rising house prices are a vote winner. They may be unfair to some but no party will attack them if they have any sense, for two reasons.

Firstly people who own houses like rising house prices and seventy percent of the population are house owners, a bit of an electoral no brainer.

Secondly even if it takes ten years to get on the housing Ladder you’ll probably be there for another forty so even if it was 50/50 and not 70/30 there would still be many more happy at any one time than upset.

Trying to get on the housing ladder is like nursery education, you don’t worry or argue about it till you have a child and you stop when they go to school. It only lasts four or five years for most familiesand for a minority at any one time, so it tends to be low on the political agenda.

A rise in interest rates has much more impact because it effects the majority all at once.

The housing bubble presents governments with a real problem as in order to keep the majority happy (low interest rates and rising house prices) they effectively have to allow propertry to go under taxed and over valued, undermining the rest of the economy and encouraging debt driven growth, as people borrow more and more to purchase over valued assets.

Eventually as with the US something will give and then the government will be in real trouble. The poll seems to indicate that after about twelve years the tories have been forgiven on the economy for blowing the nations reserves and are trusted again to run the economy, but not for the housing crash, that cost people there own money.

I suppose it’s the price of populism.

Right now if I was Brown I might risk October because if, between now and May, house prices start to fall with personal debt higher than GDP he could be in for a hammering.

Peter.

But on the other hand the last thing Brown would want would be to go for a super early election, when he’s got two and a half years left of this paliaent to run, and then have the polls narrow through the campaign and end up with a hung parliament or worse, out of power altogether. He would then go down as the PM who squandered Tony Blairs 66 seat majority on a gamble, and lost.

For somebody as cautious as Gordon Brown, I don’t see him taking such a risk. I believe he’ll end up holding on and holding on - No election until 2010, IMO.

I also think that the MASSIVE tax burden we have all had to endure under Labour in the last ten years is now starting to influence people - when they see that all that extra tax revenue has been squandered !!

Brown is more responsible than Blair for the current woes of the British people - he was the puppet master of Blair in their unholy alliance .

Only a Scot like Blair who hid his roots , religion and accent could have been elected and was in 1997 to fool the English - Brown , even though he has toned down his Scottish accent - can’t hide his loyalties to Scotland over England and his undemocratic voting on English matters when he is a Scots MP - THIS IS TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE to the English in a so called democratic country .

No chance, Brown knows he needs to dissociate himself from Blair and Iraq. The longer the war goes on the more his brand will be diluted by it. If he goes early through an election his brand will be a fresh start with a new vision (something London will buy into: just like they did with Blair). Plus he’ll be an unknown quantity and so can come across all mysterious and with no history of gaffs or economic instability for the media to focus on. It’ll be his second honeymoon.

Save your holidays for the impending campaign.

To Mike Richardson,

Thank you for your reply to Kevin Rodgers. As I was reading his comments, I felt a huge black cloud on the horizon, but thankfully, your reply has restored my trust in human nature. Roll on the election that all I can say. With all that has happend over the past week with a child being shot, and other shootings/knife crimes, I only prey that with the latest policy announcements today from Cameron will have a desired affect, as this country badly needs a change of government.

oops - spelling mistake PRAY not PREY

I see the hacks have been out in force again!

WORCESTER BLUE :-

Thank you for your comments - you must’nt let voices like KEVIN RODGERS & others frighten you - he and others are starting to squirm and covering their eyes to the inevitable outcome - that the British voted for Blair - not Labour , now that Blair has gone with the cheesy smile - what has replaced him is a very dull Prime Minister who a dubious history connected to Blair who’s time is numbered . The only thing in question is the size of a Tory majority and when - obviously if Brown goes the full term as i suspect he will - the Tory majority will be even bigger , i expect by 2009 Labour will be on figures like 26% to 28% in the polls and the Tories on a figure like 41% to 42% or more.

This would give a Tory majority of 174 (Con 412 / Lab 180 / LibDem 27)based on C.42% / L.28% / LD.18% . These figures are not pie in the sky , but the sort of figures we were seeing prior to a Labour Government .

Once an election is announced - especially if it is before 2009 - the Tories will bring out the BIG GUNS and blow Labour away with their policies and highlight the failings of Labour over the past 10 years .

KEVIN RODGERS talks about support for Labour in the South - my question is WHERE ? He has nothing to back that up .

He neglects to mention or realise that Blair ruled with the lowest percentage of the electorate behind him than any other Prime Minister in history . Tories did not go over to Labour , they went to the Liberals or stayed at home because they were unhappy with the Major government - those Tories who went to the Liberals are now coming back and the ones who stayed at home have had enough and are starting to come back into the Tory fold - that’s why the Tory membership is booming and the others parties are all declining .

The British are naturally right leaning - that’s why the Conservatives have ruled longer than any other party in the UK since 1900 and are the oldest political party in the world . This is just a fluke of the times that Labour have actually had 3 terms in office - take my word for it - IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN !

The Guardian’s extropolation of the poll,based upon regional variations,shows a large deviance from what a national uniform extropolation would yield.
The poll results:Labour 39%,Conservative 34%,Lib Dem 18%,Others 9% ,according to the regional breakdown provided in the introductory text,give 335 Labour,249 Tory,35 Lib Dem and 31 Others,a Labour overall majority of 20.
Comapre this to putting these figures into the website Electoral Calculus,which based upon uniform national swing would give 373 Labour,217 Tories.31 Lib Dem,29 others-a majority of 96.

I can quite believe that outside London,apart from strongholds like Southampton,Bristol,and to a lesser extent Brighton,southern Labour representaion may be severely pruned next time-to my mind,this data if put to Gordon Brown would all but extinguish any chance of a snap October poll

WORCESTER BLUE :-

Thank you for your comments - you must’nt let voices like KEVIN RODGERS & others frighten you - he and others are starting to squirm and covering their eyes to the inevitable outcome - that the British voted for Blair - not Labour , now that Blair has gone with the cheesy smile - what has replaced him is a very dull Prime Minister who a dubious history connected to Blair who’s time is numbered . The only thing in question is the size of a Tory majority and when - obviously if Brown goes the full term as i suspect he will - the Tory majority will be even bigger , i expect by 2009 Labour will be on figures like 26% to 28% in the polls and the Tories on a figure like 41% to 42% or more.

This would give a Tory majority of 174 (Con 412 / Lab 180 / LibDem 27)based on C.42% / L.28% / LD.18% . These figures are not pie in the sky , but the sort of figures we were seeing prior to a Labour Government .

Once an election is announced - especially if it is before 2009 - the Tories will bring out the BIG GUNS and blow Labour away with their policies and highlight the failings of Labour over the past 10 years .

KEVIN RODGERS talks about support for Labour in the South - my question is WHERE ? He has nothing to back that up .

He neglects to mention or realise that Blair ruled with the lowest percentage of the electorate behind him than any other Prime Minister in history . Tories did not go over to Labour , they went to the Liberals or stayed at home because they were unhappy with the Major government - those Tories who went to the Liberals are now coming back and the ones who stayed at home have had enough and are starting to come back into the Tory fold - that’s why the Tory membership is booming and the others parties are all declining .

The British are naturally right leaning - that’s why the Conservatives have ruled longer than any other party in the UK since 1900 and are the oldest political party in the world . This is just a fluke of the times that Labour have actually had 3 terms in office - take my word for it - IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN !!

Looks like my latest contribution has not been added - bugs in the system again !!

Mike Richardson you absolute certain that Tories will win I don’t think most people I Talk in the Pubs in safe Conservative True Blue Seat in Mid Bedfordshire think that Labour will win again and Rupert Murdoch is likely to Back Brown because of his Scottishness and Puritan and Presbyterian Background in Scotland in the sun newspaper.

If Labour win either May 2008 or May 2009 He win with a Majority of 30 or Over to Be in the Safe Side.

The House of Lords reform will be replaced of Reformed Chamber possible elected of 100% or 80% of Elected on Proportional Representation Regional Party Open List System in all the Regions and Nations of the United Kingdom.

Not the First Past The Post system what the Tories want that would give A Conservative Majority and give a government a headache on Government Bills to go through?

Unlikely I say But Liberal democrats want STV means Single Transferable Vote for (all Elections)including the (House of Lords one.)

Labour Should Win

Message To Marlovian and Worcester Blue.

Marlovain you are mad to work 60 Hours clearly you overwork where’s your social Life and not going to holiday for 5 Years must be madness you must bored staying for 5 years at home you need to go abroad to try new tastes of great European culture!

I prefer to work for 40 hours if more I need Overtime Pay. You need rest for social and relaxing.
People who get Benefit is for severe Illness and disabilities.

Worcester Blue Cameron is a Spinner a Heir Of Blair clearly a Gimmick and full of gimmicks.

That’s why they Trust Brown who does a better Job in looking after the Country Handling well in recent terror attacks and The floods and Foot and Mouth crisis not on Spinning and gimmicks.

Cameron says too much but Does nothing and not delivers?

I think NHS is his Strength But Labour created it after the Great Labour Landslide in 1945.

I Would love Liberals to gain Eastbourne,Totnes, Chelmsford,Solihull and Few more Tory bastions in the Next general Election?

Is this supposed to be where you comment on Polls?It is turning into a political party broadcast for the Conservative Party and it’s all slightly embarrassing.

Before you say it I’m a Conservative.Try keeping to reflections on the polls and not some diatribe from the party.

Exactly - as Peter says, the comments here are to let people discuss the polls. They are NOT for people to say why they think Labour or the Conservatives are awful and hideous (or our wonderful saviours), not for partisan bickering or doing your own little PPBs.

I rarely if ever moderate anything at all on this side of the site, but can people try to get back to the spirit of non-partisanship!

Of course the problem of thinking about elections is that you take your eye off what is happening now.
One thing Blair does seem to have been very good at is dealing with that traditional problem for Labour governments the trade unions. It will be interesting to see how Brown deals with them.
I wonder if Brown really thinks getting failed policies from the 1970’s such as incomes policies is going to be a vote winner.

Should we really be comparing polls from 5 years ago or more, when the methodology is so different to now.

Also remember the shy Tory syndrome of 1992, could there be a case for that still or a shy Labour voter?

I’d like to see a much bigger poll of 10,000 plus people espcially as the sample sizes from Gurnaid poll were so small and they supplied regional breakdowns.

Out of interest seeing at what position the Government was in roughly half way through we get the following results.

1981 (Aug) Con (30) LAb (38)
1985 (sept)Con (30) Lab (33)
1989 (sept) Con (38) Lab (43)
1994 (July) Con (23) Lab (51)
1999 (Aug) Con (27) Lab (49)
2003 (sept) Con (29) Lab (43)

These are all MORI Polls as they are the only ones that go that far back. Now even with the Labour Opposition being +8, +3, +5 ahead they went on to LOSE at the next elections. This is a reasonable benchmark.

I’d say the conservatives to stand a chance they need to be looking at being 10% ahead minimum… For anything like a landslide it needs to be 15% or more.

Incidently I also looked at by-election results, Governments lose SAFE seats by heavy margins prior to being defeated at a general.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records

eg

1976

From Labour to Conservative
22.6% at the Walsall North by-election, 1976

From Conservative to Labour
29.2% at the Dudley West by-election, 1994

23.1% at the Dagenham by-election, 1994

22.1% at the South East Staffordshire by-election, 1996

22.0% at the Barking by-election, 1994

Well, I’m going to have my say.

The Conservatives will be lucky under Cameron to be the largest party in the House of Commons, let alone have some fanciful 174 seat overall majority. Do you really think people when push comes to shove are going to jeopardise the relative financial and occupational stability they’ve enjoyed under Labour. Alas for Labour, the concern is many content people simply don’t vote.

As we have witnessed, Cameron has been forced to onto traditional Tory territory by an indifferent to hostile right wing press

Nevertheless, I’m sticking with Labour and hopefully the country will continue to benefit from sustained economic growth together with that commitment towards social decency. I don’t even want to contemplate the alternative.

I had been thinking that Cameron was making a genuine, sincere move towards a more gentler, kind of Conservatism, perhaps even a One-Nation Conservatism (I’ve plenty of admiration for such men as Butler) but in “rehabilitating” that Redwood he has proved to me beyond any shadow of doubt that sincere he ain’t.

Society is “not broken” merely fractured in parts and I’m under no illusion as to when the seeds for that were sown.

Nevertheless, as for the next election goes, regardless of what the polls are telling us, I find it difficult to conceive Labour increasing its majority.

Anthony,

On the Diana/McCann thing.

I was actually born on 01/07/61 the exact same day as princess diana, so if I ever (though it’s unlikely) get to be more than a councillor, I wouldn’t be surprised if the tabloids ran with that one.

Oddly enough she also died on my wedding annniversary so the Mail or Express would probably wheel out Mystic Meg….

Not really about Polls but after the last dozen posts a little light relief.

Peter.

Personally I think that Labour is more popular now than it was in 2005. Obviously that could change. However, there was a great disillusionment with Blair in 2005 which is no longer relevant. A significant number of former Labour voters abstained or went to the Lib Dems or Greens in 2005. I expect most of them to vote Labour next time - subject to an event akin to Iraq occurring before then - Cameron may do better than Howard but my view is that any increase in Tory support will be at least cancelled out by an increase in the Labour vote with the Lib Dems being significant losers.