Totally meaningless poll w.r.t. Scotland. SNP form a popular government. Support for Independence has gone from 23% to 35% in 2 weeks. When will the pollsters stop treating Scotland as an English region. Conduct separate polls in all four countries of the UK and then you might get accurate results.

E.g. Recent poll, 48% indicated that SNP would be their first choice vote. LibDems on 8%.

Oh dear bad news for Labour indeed.

Glad I posted my last comment before these came out. Weighted Moving Average now 34.8:38.5:15.5. Communicate was much the most erratic of the pollsters, with a Standard Deviation from the WMA of 3.3, and their “neck and neck” looks out of line. But did you seen the Broons cartoon in Private Eye?

Nicholas,

I make the WMA much closer at 36.3 : 37.8 : 15.8, but that’s without having a good look at the data tables for the recent MORI, CommR and YouGov polls. I agree with Paul Maggs over at pb.com - Gordon Brown’s lead is slipping away and looking ahead to the possible economic news and political problems (EU referendum anybody) over the next 12 months, now may be the best time to go to the country.

An election on my current figures (not on the website yet as I’m waiting for the data-tables) would see a Labour majority of about 20/25. That’s good enough for another 5 years methinks.

Lib Dems are in trouble. Labour lead is down and still they are on only 15%.

Interesting stats from Scotland though, when you look at the breakdown, as follows:-
YouGov
Labour: 40%
SNP: 36%
Con: 12%
Lib Dem: 9%
Green: 2%

ComRes
SNP 38%
Labour 36%
Lib Dem 12%
Tory 6%

very interesting indeed…

Brown should have called an election.

Very interesting. These polls represent the first piece of good news for the Tories in a while but, as Anthony suggests, there is no way of knowing yet whether this recovery will hold or whether it is simply a reflection of Cameron capitalising on a few horrific acts of criminality which are in the headlines and holding the political limelight for a week.

Osborne’s announcement today that he will match Labour’s spending commitments will have traditional Tory voters and John Redwood spitting out their collective dummy. I expect the debate now to return to the economy which is, after all the issue, that will decide any election.

While it is now less likely that Brown will call an election this year, it is certainly not out of the question depending on how events unfold over the conference season. And let’s not lose sight of the fact that even this supposed Tory recovery puts them in a position that is not anywhere near good enough.

Stewart Very interesting but look at average for last 2 Mori poll Scotland figures Con 14.5 Lab 39.5 LibDem 19 SNP 22
Not much agreement there . The Scottish sub samples are so small that one particular poll may represent say only the views of people in the Glasgow area and noone in the Highlands took part .

If you take YouGov out of the equation the pattern seems to have been a three point lead when Brown took over that rose to 6/7 points a week later, and from then on has been at the 5/6 point level since then.

Interesting results.

Is the YouGov/GMT poll directly comparable to other standard YouGov polls?

Philip - yep. It’s a normal YouGov poll, nothing unusual about it.

Things are not looking great for Brown but still good enough to win (if there were an election today). I still think the election will be in 2009. November should be an interesting month; I think that by that time the polls should have settled down a bit. Who knows what they will be showing then!!!
I am also looking forward to the next YouGov poll, let’s see if they are out of step with the other pollsters, in the past people were ashamed to say they voted Tory maybe people are now ashamed to say they vote Labour because of Iraq.

Remember these are all AUGUST polls people: I think the unreliability of the holiday season in terms of polling is diminishing as we move inexorably towards 52 weeks a year politics but still don’t think any poll; whether it be showing 10 point Labour leads or parity, tells us anything consequential.

And nor do I think these polls rule out an Autumn election either: it’s no more or less likely than it was in July.

I don’t think Gordon Brown would risk an election unless he was sure Labour would increase its overall majority, especially with the EU Treaty vote etc coming up.
An October election may also ignite damaging accusations of opportunism to the PM by going so early. Early general elections in the past have been called because the government has a shaky (or no) majority (as in 1951, 1966, October 1974). Labour today is not in that position.

Andy: I think it will be difficult to make any charge of opportunism stick. Both opposition parties (wisely or not) have called for an early election, the media at large has been calling for one. If Brown does call one, then almost anyone who cries foul would be a hypocrite.

I can not see Brown calling an early election for the same reason he wouldn’t strike against Blair - I think he’s risk-adverse. He could win the election but he could easily (especially with new boundaries) lose his majority. Why risk it when he has up to 2.5 years left to go of this Parliament still.

except that the Tories really don’t want an early election apparently which might just tempt Gordon to go for one

There has been a lot of talk of an “Autumn of Discontent” over public sector pay claims which could be a real test for Brown.

Politically he has no choice but to face the unions down, while at the same time asking them to bankroll an election campaign next year or the year after.

This with a tough spending round and a possibly slowing economy and stagnet housing market could form the background to the next election.

Peter.

“If Brown does call one, then almost anyone who cries foul would be a hypocrite.”

That would be true of some politicians and some parts of the media - I’m not sure about the general public though.

Andy D - didn’t the general public - in fairly large numbers in several polls reported via this site - say they thought there should be an early election when Brown took over?

All the 5 polls are within 7 days so I,ve done a Poll of Polls Cons 35.4% Lab 38.2% Lib 16% others 10.4%
Calculas Labour Major 68
Swing meter Labour Major 54
Will things get better over the next 2 years?
Will Brown back himself to win the debate during an election
campain??
If it was up to me I would call an election.

This from a posting on this site on May 12th:

“Finally, 51% of people said they thought Gordon Brown should call an immediate election after taking over. This is down compared to some of the overwhelming majorities picked up in previous polls and responses remain very partisan - 82% of Tories would like a general election, only 21% of Labour voters would.”

I think you’re right Warren, out of the people who wanted to answer the question at least. It remains to be seen how many of them will actually turn out and vote only 2 years on.

Red Alan Hastings,

The problem is that a very slight drop in Labour’s support during the campaign, or a bigger than average swing to the Conservatives in the South, could see that majority reduced to single figures, and who wants to govern on that basis?

I would have thought that a ‘new mandate’ election in October might still be an attractive option if the polls look OK. There are bumpy times ahead with public sector pay and generally tighter public spending. There are global economic uncertainties and the prospects of awful situations in Iraq if the Democrats withdraw US troops afeter an election win. A scenario which involves a very bumpy ride over the next two years followed by more upbeat conditions could make an October 07 election then a five year term and an October 2012 election on the back of a successful Olympics and a bit of national back-slapping appealing.

No great surprise really. The Brown bounce was always going to subside in time. There will now probably be a slight swing back to Labour soon as Brown begins his fightback-but this will be temporary and the Tories should be opening up a sustained lead by the middle of next year.

The main points to come out of these polls are as follows: first, there is now unlikely to be a general election-possibly until 2010. The next 6 months will be a critical period and if the trend of the polls continues, I don’t think we will see an early election.

second, we continue to see the downward trend for the Liberal Democrat’s. Sureley they must now have bottomed out, but with the start of the withdrawel from Iraq announced today; effectively it removes the Lib Dem’s main hobby horse. The party has made something of a tactical error in investing so much into opposition to the war. With that issue removed, they will have to build up a policy programme in the public’s mind from scratch. Surely in the meantime, they will not drop BELOW 15% in the polls???

And 3 more polls reconfirm my previous predictions of a Tory revival in the polls during September and in the lead by October (6 new polls in total in a week) - surely i’m not the only one who saw this coming ?

I have seen a couple of mentions of what Gordon Brown intends to do next. Apparently there were a whole bunch of policy announcements that were derailed by the floods and terrorist attacks that were intended to boost Labour up to around 45% in the opinion polls. It now seems we will hear what these are quite soon.

Forgive me if I suggest 45% seems at least a little unlikely. They’re going to have to be pretty good ideas, and then there’s the problem of implementation.

I don’t think Cameron and the Torys look ready for government.
I would hope in a tight fight there will be a much higher turn out.
Under Ming the Libs are losing support and a new leader of the Libs may increase there support. Labour lose seats to Tory but pick up some Lib seats.
An October 07 election might just be Labours best chance.
A majority of 10 - 15 enouch to govern for 5 years.
I have already made the 2012 Olympics point.
Do we need to be on an election alert for the next 2 years?

Recent political history(the 1974-9 parliament) shows it IS possible to govern with no majority,as Callaghan did from March 1977 to May 1979.
In the case of Labour being short of an overall majority by 10 seats,give or take,the opposition would compromise (a)Tories (b)Lib Dems (c)Plaid Cymru-whose Mps would almost certainly back Labour
(d)SNP-who may well cause mischief (e)Ulster MPs who do take their seats(i.e excluding Sinn Fein)-in the likely case of continuing progress in peace,it is unlikely they would help bring down a minority Labour govt.
The sheer difficulty of getting so many blocks of MPs to unite on one vote of no confidence,and the anger Lib Dems could unleash upon themselves by taking such a course leads me to believe taht even if Gordon Brown fell 15-20 seats short of an overall majority whenever the election comes,that he could be confident of serving a full parliament

Kevin,

It will indeed be interesting to see what policy announcements the government has in the offering. Cameron, to his credit, has been addressing issues and, finally at long last, floating “policies”, so, at least, the boost in the polls is not without some merit.

Lets see how successful, or unsucessful, the respective party conferences will be, or be perceived to be, and how that shakes things up a bit.

Red Alan,

Re-the Conservatives, I agree, they are not ready for government. There still seems to be signs that they are having an identity crisis among their good, bad and ugly selves

A long-term plan desiring to have the opportunity to get re-election in 2012 following a successful Olympics makes a 2007 election *less* likely.

Yes 2012 is 5 years after 2007 so its possible. But on the other hand its 5 years after 2007. History has shown what can happen when party leaders wait until the last possible moment before calling the election (1979 and 1997 especially). A 2007 election would imply seeking a 2011 re-election.

It is possible to govern with a small/no majority, but why would Brown want to? There is also a hard-core of rebels within the Labour ranks and they will not lose their seats if Labour gets pushed back more towards its core northern seats - making a slimmer/no majority tougher.

The risk:reward ratio to me rules out a poll. Healthy majority, adverse boundary changes in the next election, 2.5 years left to go of this Parliament . . . Brown is anything but a fool so why would he take the risk on a gamble?

It looks very interesting now The Conservatives have narrowed the Labour Lead in the Opinion Polls but An Hung Parliament is looking very likely indeed or it could be a narrow Labour win of Majority of Between
20 or 30 is likely from now on and if do well a Majority of 50 or 40 if do Badly a Majority of 10 or even less than 6 or a Hung Parliament Situation?

Mike Richardson you were right a Tory Recovery is true now But Labour will not hold a General election in October 2007 its unlikely but could hold next Year in May 2008 or even May 2009 or the latest June 2010?

New Poll shows in the Times Newspaper Labour 37% Conservative 36% 1% Labour Lead not what Brown wants is it?

SNP are giving Labour a Big Scare in Scotland you know could steal some Labour seats at the Next General Election?

The South is crucial to Labour if Conservatives gain votes off the Liberal Democrats in the south you could see Gaining some Labour Seats such as Stroud, Brighton Kemptown, Basildon, Harlow and Hove and Immediate an Hung Parliament likely?

The South East is the Crucial Ground for Labour?

labour can not face the unions down they have just got £20m pledged from them to prevent insolvency.70’s again?

unfortunately there is not the same golden goose to save the uk from 10 years of wasted public funds.the cost of quangos has increased from £47bn to £167 bn since 97′

John,

I dare say that Brown can face the unions down. It would seem that a group of pro-Labour businessmen are willing to fund a Labour campaign once it comes. I’d like to think the unions weren’t so stupid to cut their nose off to spite their face nowadays and, if so, there won’t be a return to the 1970s. No one of sound mind wants that.

Money continues to come Labour’s way; though the party remains in debt. Conservatives are in a better position courtesy of the Smith Square sale.

Until, a consensus is reached on some form of state funding with caps on private donations, Labour and the Conservatives are always going to be dependent on money coming in from the rich and powerful business community (both) and the unions (Labour). Too dependent, in fact.

WHISKEY YEAH :-

Atlast someone acknowledges my forecast in the polls from the beginning of the Brown boost about a turnaround in the polls for September with a lead in October at the latest .

I have from the very beginning said that Brown will not go to the polls before 2009 / 2010 at the earliest - and by that time Labour will be well behind in the polls heading for certain defeat .

Even now - if there was a snap election / the very best scenario Brown could hope for is a hung Parliament . By 2008 the best he could hope for is not losing too badly .

Neither Labour or Tory have a majority vote. By far the biggest vote is NO VOTE or PROTEST VOTE.
And the biggest growing vote is the B.N.P. vote.
Peoples actions, reactions and political allegiances are determined more than any thing by their personal circumstances.
And when people start to no longer fear the ’stigma’ of voting B.N.P., when they tire of the main parties undemocratic alliance with business and millionaire backing, and more than anything when people realise the destruction of British homogenity is the main cause of all social division (the problem is not that ethnicities in Britian are different, but rather that we are all the same, and as such all need our ethnic, religious and territorial sovereignty), then the ‘main’ parties may well come to see where all those ‘don’t votes’ have gone.

‘Forty years ago observers summarised Britian as homogenous. That compared to the U.S. and other leading countries it had relatively few important lines of division. Whereas race, religion and territory divided most other countries, it did not in Britian.’ - U.K. Politics, Fifth Edition.

Our current problems belie ANY notion that we have always been ‘multicultural’.
The rich have never been richer. And the weight on social/local peoples sevices never greater.
That is immigration. Short-term benefit, long-term problems.