Following Margaret Hodge’s comments on the BNP on Sunday, the BBC has been giving great play to a new report for the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust warning that almost a quarter of Londoners might vote for the BNP.
The figures really needs to be put in some context if not to be alarmist - 24% of people in London told ICM in the JRRT’s “State of the Nation” poll 2004 that they “might vote” BNP as opposed to the 68% who said they could never vote BNP (similar figures came from exit polls in 2004). In comparison, 47% said they might vote Labour, 48% said they might vote Conservative and 50% said they might vote Liberal Democrat. So, to put it bluntly, the BNP getting a quarter of the vote in London is as likely as one of the main parties getting almost 50%. The significance of the finding is not that 24% of people in London are likely to vote BNP, but that 24% of people do not consider them beyond the pale. (It’s also worth pointing out that London is not typical - across the country as a whole only 18% said they might vote for the BNP. Some of the BBC reporting of the study has claimed that it says that almost 25% of people would vote BNP - in fact the finding only applies to London).
In the same survey ICM asked people to say if they liked or disliked political parties on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being “dislike a lot”, 4 being neutral and 7 being “like a lot”. The BNP were still easily the most disliked party - 35% of people in London disliked them a lot and 65% had negative views of them. Only 16% of Londoners viewed them positively in any sense, only 4% liked them a lot.
The JRRT report does contain some interesting research about who actually votes BNP. In the London elections a high BNP vote correllated with a high proportion of skilled or semi-skilled manual workers (C2 and D social classes), especially C2 voters. Wards with a larger number of older voters tended to have a higher BNP vote, as did wards with a low average level of education. There was, however no link between ward with a high number of benefit claimants and support for the BNP. The study suggests that the BNP gain their support from older, poorly educated people, but that their support comes not not from the very poorest, the unemployed and those reliant upon benefits, but from the skilled working class. The study also looked for links between the BNP vote and the ethnic make up or number of asylum seekers in a ward, but found no correlation (though they pointed out the difficulties of drawing any conclusions on this given that you cannot separate out the “white vote” and some boroughs with high numbers of asylum seekers actually house them in other boroughs).
















14 Responses
What is most striking having read the report is that on virtually every question London seems to be to the right of the UK as a whole. Journalists like to paint London as some sort of liberal island when in fatc the opposite seems to be true.
April 17th, 2006 at 4:51 pmWe need to bear in mind that the truth is not always told in these surveys, but the message serves to send a warning.
April 18th, 2006 at 10:06 amIndeed, IF the Lib Dems had had their way, and we were labouring under proportional representation, then we would have a number of BNP MP’s, as they polled some 800k votes at the last election.
The survey clearly shows though that the public are becoming increasingly alienated from the politicians, who no longer represent and articulate their views. It only takes a party like the BNP, to clearly state the obvious, and get the votes from people who want their views and opinions to be represented.
Immigration and the treatment of asylum seekers are classic case points, the opinions are not rascist, it is concern.
The EU is another point, our Parliament is fast becoming an irrevelance as Brussels and Strasbourg make and pass legislation impacting on our daily lives, against which we have no voice.
The politico’s need to take heed and forget the focus groups, go out and meet the people, listen and ignore the party whip.
MP’s are their to represent the electorate and should not owe allegiance to the party.
I’m not hugely convinced by the authors’ argument that there is a “right bloc” in London of UKIP, BNP, and Conservatives. There is some correlation between support for UKIP and BNP, but UKIP were much more likely to give second preference votes to Conservative than to BNP. And Conservative voters were clearly very antipathetic to the BNP, although better disposed towards UKIP.
Lumping UKIP and BNP together as “the Far Right” is IMO wrong as well.
April 18th, 2006 at 10:43 amThe “right bloc” thing seems to be largely based on the ICM exit poll data asking what parties people would vote for. It is interesting as far as it goes, but the polling data certainly isn’t significant enough to base the figures upon. The sample size was only 707, so when they say 71% of BNP voters said they might consider voting UKIP it is 71% of the sub-sample of that 707 people who voted BNP in the London elections - we are probably talking about only a dozen or so people.
On the mayoral vote it’s obviously far less clear - there are lots of second preferences going back and forth between Conservatives and the Lib Dems and not insignificant amounts of Con & UKIP 2nd preferences going to Labour. Then again, the mayoral elections are obviously distorted by the effect of Ken Livingstone (and Steve Norris is probably more able to appeal to Lib Dem votes than the Tory party in general).
April 18th, 2006 at 11:07 amOn Wills comments, I think London is a very diverse international city and generally very tolerant, but that diversity means that there are significant groups with different attitudes and that although a minority over all in some areas they can be the majority view or at least swing the result.
I am reminded of the Iranian elections where the media focused on the views of middle calss iranian student bloggers and just failed to spot the power of a radical who was popular with the disenfrancisied.
On the issue of it being the skilled working class rather than the unemployed who might vote BMP I am reminded of a women I worked with in Glasgow, who although no a low wage and voted Tory, and equally dislike immigrants and the unemployed. One she saw as a threat to her way of like and even her job, and the other as work shy and lazy and supported by her taxes.
There really seemed no basis for her views or the fears they were based on, but they bwere her views and fears and I think those attitudes are much more prevelant than we like to admit.
Peter.
April 19th, 2006 at 8:29 amThe reason the BNP are gaining ground is due to the fact that this “government” for want of another word have and still do ignor the publics view that there are too many “asylum seekers” coming into this country. After watching a BBC show called Shoppers and Coppers where 99% of all the offenders were shall we say, “asylum seekers”, or failed “asylum seekers” my blood was boiling at the contempt show towards the people of country by these “people”, so I think the BNP have another convert.
April 19th, 2006 at 9:00 amI was a little surprised by the finding that 35% of London voters disliked the BNP a lot, for the following reason: according to the 2001 census, about 30% of London’s population consists of ethnic minorities.
Therefore, if we assume that virtually all of the ethnic minority community strongly dislikes the BNP, it means that in the 70% of the population which is white, only 5% / 70% = 7% disliked them a lot. In other words, 93% of London’s white population has a slightly higher opinion of them than ‘disliking them a lot’, which is slightly concerning for those of us opposed to the BNP, (given my earlier assumption about ethnic minorities strongly disliking them, which I would think is a pretty safe assumption).
April 19th, 2006 at 3:00 pmAndrew - I find the census websites almost impossible to navigate, but I’d look carefully at the age breakdowns. Polls are only those over 18, the census covers everyone, and ethnic minorities tend to have a much younger age profile, so I suspect that amongst those over 18 the percentage of ethnic minorities in London is slightly lower.
April 20th, 2006 at 2:43 amI have been reading all the recent reports about who may or may not wish to vote for the BNP, yet this is not in anyway a true reflection of how people on the streets feel, it is simply a London thing, yet here in yorkshire in the area I live we have no BNP representative and the word on 9 out of 10 people I speak too is we would vote BNP if we had the chance, unfortunately we dont ever get asked in surveys nor are we considered about enough to be asked how we feel on immigration or aslum issues in our local town, the word on our street is no different to that 250 miles away in London.
April 20th, 2006 at 6:36 amIt wouldn’t surprise me if the BNP had a better showing in the next general or local elections. This would be two fingers up to the current government, similar to the UKIP showing in the European elections. I wouldn’t take that route, but I can see the attraction to certain parts of the population, who feel aggrieved or disenfranchised in some way and are seeking some way to show their anger. The government has spent huge amounts of time and money on matters external to the UK and this is, quite rightly, perceived to be detrimental. More insular right-wing parties will inevitably start attracting more attention as these are the ones who are raising those issues. Governments are elected by the people to act on their behalf, but when they start acting on their own against the majority opinion, then it is only a matter of time before they are consigned to the back benches. Let’s hope some good people are on the front benches.
April 20th, 2006 at 11:35 amMark - I agree it is sad that the government is too afraid to make a proper case for immigration and to defend asylum seekers from bigotry. The fact is that most asylum seekers come to Britain seeking a better life having had awful experiences. The fact that you put people in inverted commas shows a terrible lack of respect for fellow human beings. Yes some asylum seekers will commit crime and yes some of them will exploit our social security but the evidence suggests less than the indigenous population. Asylum seekers and other immigrants contribute much to our economy - they keep the NHS going and come to think of it we could do with more polish doctors. The reason why people vote BNP is that they feel ignored by the political process and because of underlying social issues - lack of council housing etc. These problems give extremists the chance to scapegoat immigrant communities.
April 20th, 2006 at 11:52 amAnthony,
IIRC, in 2003, 43% of State-educated schoolchildren in London wre from ethnic minorities, which may give a rough indication of what proportion of London’s electorate are from such backgrounds.
I’m not sure what the figure is for privately educated children; and of course, quite a lot of London children are educated in the Home Counties as well.
April 20th, 2006 at 4:17 pmPerhaps the support for the BNP comes from people who have read the party manifesto.
April 21st, 2006 at 6:01 amThe manifsto reads like an old fashioned socilalist wish list, which makes it hugely attractive to the working and lower middle classes.
Bear also in mind that many of our ethnic communities are as racially bigoted as the National Front towards others, and that perhaps, explains the anomaly of percentile support in mainly mixed communities.
But, in the main the poll should be regarded as a message, one that Labour seem to be taking on board given the discussion ensuing.
Let’s face it, a “true” Londoner is white English, not racist, it’s a fact, I was born in South London, and now If I go back there I feel like a total alien, like I’m in a foreign country, now I ain’t racist to any degree as much as it sounds, but surely enough is enough, the true London people and people everywhere else are getting seriously tucked up by the government.
Immigration is part of human nature in the modern world, it’s just the way the world works now, but like everything in this world, it has to be done in MODERATION. Having a certain amount of immigrants in areas is OK, but some areas are just pure non British and it’s disgusting.
Love it or hate it, it’s the way it is, most British people have always been very territorial of their country and it’s been like this for hundreds of years, call it nature of the beast, but sooner or later, at this rate, this country is going to explode like a gigantic bomb, basically a massive civil war.
And this is the reason why alot of people (natives) are voting a right wing party such as the BNP, because most of them don’t want multiculturalism, nor do they want a large Islamic presence in their own land, and the other Parties don’t offer them the comfort they need.
Like I said, it’s the nature of the beast with Native Britons, love it or hate it, we can’t change the way we are.
Also, before I hit submit, Yes, I know we wasn’t angels in the past with governing other countries such as India and Africa, but they have got their lands back now, so we deserve ours, or at least some rights in our own HOMELAND.
November 3rd, 2006 at 11:16 pm