YouGov – Conservatives 8 points ahead in London
A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard shows voting intentions in London. The topline voting intention figures, with changes from how London voted at the last general election, are CON 39% (+7), LAB 31% (-8), LDEM 17% (-5), Others 13% (+6), representing a swing of seven and a half percent. If repeated at a General Election then, on the new boundaries, the Conservatives would win 36 seats in London,to Labour’s 31, including 14 seats that are currently notionally held by Labour. The London swing is slightly lower than that shown by YouGov’s aggregate figures last month.
The poll also asked questions on who would make the best leader of the main parties. Out of Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and John Reid, Brown was the preferred choice of 30% people, compared to 13% for Blair and 18%for Reid. This is the first question to directly compare preferences for Brown and Reid, unfortunately marred by the inclusion of Blair who won’t be an option when the Labour leadership does fall vacant. Amongst Labour voters though the preference for Brown over Reid is quite decisive – 48% for Brown compared to 9% for Reid (interestingly, amongst Conservative voters Reid is preferred to Brown by 28% to 19%. If there does end up being a leadership contest and Reid does end up being a contender, there is the possiblity that he could market himself as the man more capable of appealling to those voters who are drifting back towards the Conservatives).
For the Liberal Democrats Sir Menzies Campbell still trails behind his predecessor Charles Kennedy. 33% of people think Kennedy would make the best leader of the Lib Dems, compared to 19% who would prefer Campbell. Amongst Lib Dem voters Kennedy is preferred by 51% to Campbell’s 30%.
Finally (and a bit more frivolously, since she’s unlikely to make a comeback) as if on demand from a comment Mark Senior left on this blog after the last poll comparing Campbell to Kennedy (as far as I know it’s co-incidence. It’s certainly nothing to do with me!), YouGov asked people if they would prefer David Cameron as Conservative leader to Margaret Thatcher as she was in the 1980s. Overall David Cameron came out on top, the first choice of 34% compared to 24% for the 1980s version of Thatcher. Amonst London Labour and Lib Dem voters the preference was strongly for Cameron, amongst London Tories ther ewas still a yearning for the Mrs T of old – 1980s Mrs Thatcher was the choice of 46% compared to 42% for Cameron. 6% of London Tories would prefer David Davis as leader.
These are, of course, just London figures. Tomorrow’s Populus poll reportedly has some proper questions comparing Brown and Reid.
Filed under: YouGov
Is this the same YouGov as at the last election, ie the one slightly bigger than most people’s idea of it?
Matthew – that made absolutely no sense whatsover
I’m guessing you meant are the boundaries of London that YouGov used bigger than people think – in that case no, this is on the actual London boundaries. It’s just the standard cross-breaks on YouGov’s tables that use the TV regions (and therefore give the larger version of “London”)
Hi Anthony ,
Thanks for the Cameron/Thatcher comparison . What was the sample size ? I think the Labour leader figures are good for Gordon Brown and certainly don’t warrant Iain Dale’s slant in favour of Reid .
Mark – sample size was 1,173. I agree with you on Brown/Reid – but it is only London, and had Blair in the mix. The Populus poll will hopefully have some more interesting stuff on Reid.
which are the 14 seats with notional Lab majorities Anthony?
Not Anthony, but my 14 would be:
Battersea
Brentford & Isleworth
Croydon Central (notionally Labour again)
Ealing Central & Acton (this may be regarded as notionally Tory already)
Eltham
Enfield North
Finchley & Golders Green
Hammersmith
Hampstead & Kilburn (Labour came a distant 3rd here in 2006 locals)
Harrow East
Harrow West
Hendon
Tooting
Westminster North (which may or may not have been Tory on these boundaries in 2005)
Interesting Poll esults in todays Herald. TNS system three has the following.
First vote, (FPTP);- Labour 36%, SNP 28%, LibDem 17%, Tories 12% ( which leaves 7% for others, although the Breens, and SSP , or SSP and soildarity as it is now, don’t intend to field FPTP candidates.)
Second Vote, (List);- Labour 28%, SNP 27%, LibDem 19%, Tories 14%, Green 8%, ( and by my count 4% left for everyone else.)
These figures are far better for Labour than recent polls so they should be viewed with causion especially as it’s January 2004 since the last poll and we don’t know the methodology as yet.
But if they are accurate, with the Tories slightly behind the national average in London, and flatlining in Scotland, it begs the question, just where are the Tories picking up most support, and is it in areas where that support can be converted in to seats.
Peter.
James –
Battersea
Brentford & Isleworth
Carshalton & Wallington
Eltham
Finchley & Golders Green
Hammersmith
Hampstead & Kilburn
Harrow East
Hendon
Poplar & Limehouse
Richmond Park
Sutton & Cheam
Tooting
Westminster North
Though it should actually have been 15, since Adam is right to say that Croydon Central would be notionally Labour on the new boundaries. On Adam’s list, I have Enfield North and Ealing Central & Acton as notional Conservative seats anyway. The new Harrow West looks very nasty for the Tories.
Sorry, you guess what I mean to say. That’s a handy service you perform.
So these are very good Conservative figures. Though I suppose if Cameron can’t get London to vote Conservative he’s not going to anywhere else.
We should remember however that these figures, even with todays polls more accurate than a decade ago, are pretty poor for an opposition mid term against a long term government.
It says something about the Labour party when at least two years out from a general election they are running around like “Chicken Little” thinking the sky is falling.
The new intake of Labour MP’s in particulaer seem to be acting like the passengers on the sinking Titanic, even thought the ship has only just left port.
God knows what they will be like in Cameron is still ahead in 2009, which is what the current panic will probably help to do.
Peter.
There was almost no panic among the passengers on the Titanic.
David,
Point taken, but then it could be argued that the group that has turned the on going cold war between Blair and Browns supporters into an actual crisis are a relatively small group of people ( like the 14 in London who may loss there seats in london) who are at risk.
It could even be argued that this poll may have been a factor. I heard last night most of those who resigned are pro Brown, hence the Coup claims, but it would be interesting to see a list of the signatories along side their majorities or the swing needed to oust them.
Peter.
Peter . I think Conservativehome gave a list with their majorities and most of them are in relatively safe seats .
Mark,
Well, there goes that theory….
Peter.