ICM - 70% think it’s time for a change
A new ICM poll in Friday’s Guardian shows little change from ICM’s poll in the Sunday Mirror last week, with voting intentions of CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 22%(+1). There is no substantial conference boost yet for the Liberal Democrats, but the poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, so they may yet benefit from a smoothly run conference. The poll does suggest that the drop for the Conservatives in the ICM/Sunday Mirror poll was more than just a blip.
As usual the Conservative lead increased slightly when people were asked how they would vote with Gordon Brown as Labour leader (37% to 31%). Asked to compare Cameron and Brown on various criteria, Brown was more trusted to make the right decisions (by 32% to 25% for Cameron), but on eight other measures Cameron was preferred to Brown. Cameron was seen as more enthusiastic, more honest, more capable of working with colleagues, as having the more pleasant personality (even by Labour voters). Brown meanwhile was seen as more arrogant and more likely to stab colleague in the back. The choice of questions probably doesn’t flatter Brown - we know from previous polls that he outscores Cameron on things like competence and strong leadership - but overall Brown’s image obviously is damaging him. Asked who woul make the better Prime Minister, Cameron had a 3 point advantage over Brown (35% to 32%).
Attitudes towards the Labour government were also negative - 62% of people thought Labour was not working in the country’s best interests, 64% think it has run out of steam, 62% think it does not deserve to win the next election. What should be most worrying for Labour is that, as noted in the headline above, 70% think it is “time for a change”. In an article for the Times back in 2002, Nick Sparrow and Dennis Kavanagh wrote that only four messages, four narratives, really had an effect in general elections - “let us finish what we started”, “don’t let them ruin it”, “their policies won’t work” and “time for a change”. Simple though it might be, once a government looks old and tired, if the opposition looks new and fresh it’s a powerful message. Labour need to hope that Gordon Brown is enough of a change to satisfy the public’s desire.
Filed under: ICM, Voting Intention
Good Morning Anthony - see my post on the previous ICM thread for some Statistics and Maths on polls . My own view is that opinion is pretty static at the moment and the Conservative lead and % in the previous ICM/Guardian poll is more likely to be due to sampling variations than a real lead that has decreased in the last 2 polls .
The Cameron leads over Brown are consistent but if as I still think probable he becomes Labour leader and PM a year or so in office will give a true comparison of how he is viewed in comparison with DC .
Well, the more polls come out like this - ones that show, accurately, that Brown will not revive Labour’s fortunes, the better it is for those of us who want to see a fresh face in the leadership (and, I might add, those of us who comprise the section of support Labour will lose if Brown does become leader).
I get the feeling that the parliamentary Labour party is so out of touch that it believes that people like me don’t really exist, and is solely focussed on those lost to the Lib Dem left, disinterested in the “new Labour” votes they’ll lose to the centre.
So roll on yet more polls consistently demonstrating that Brown’s more of a liability than Blair, please, and then Alan Johnson may have a genuine shot at leading Labour to a fourth term victory.
After all, six or more months before the Conservative leadership election, David Davis was as much the overwhelming certainty to inherit the crown from Michael Howard as Brown is currently from Blair.
I’m inclined to agree with Mark. The WMA is 38:32:19 so we’ve seen a 1% LibDem bounce during their conference. I’d predict that:
a. C will be over 40% on a WMA basis 1 week after their conference
b. The WMA lead of C over Lab will be at least 10% by then.
Any takers?
Also are there any polls about who people think will win the next election, regardless of their personal preferences? My hunch is that 70% of voters and at least 40% of Labour voters are now expecting a C win.
The question as to who people think will win the next election has been asked before but I cannot recall recently . I suspect that the majority of voters and certainly not as many as 40% Labour voters would not say a Conservative win but a hung parliament .
Nicholas,I’m a bit puzzled as to why you feel the Tories will get a conference ‘bounce’ but not Labour. I can’t see any reason why the Tories will suddenly surge to 40% following the conference season- they’ve had the advantage of being outside the media spotlight on either leadership or policy for most of this year and have barely managed 40% in the most favourable of conditions.
We’ve had the first Tory tax wobble today with noises about cuts to public services , the ‘real’ poll showing for each party will only emerge once Labour’s new leader is in place and Tory policy is under the full media glare.
Brian, there are 3 possible outcomes following the Conservative conference. They get a positive bounce, there is no change or they lose support. Conferences still have an element of unpredictability to them. There could be a huge argument over tax (thereby leading to negative stories) or DC could deliver a good speech and the element of “Built to Last” could be more widely disseminated thereby improving the publics view that the Conservatives are not just spin but have some substance.
Labour could have any of those three outcomes too but are more likely to have a bad conference because all it would take is some leadership briefings and fighting between the two sides could come out into the open again. This would reinforce the publics growing view that Labour is disunited.
It could be an interesting two weeks.
Golly - why do I think Lab will have a bad conference?? Space forbids, but the headline in the Indy today isn’t encouraging. The “tax wobble” bit is nonsense as well - everyone knows the Tories want to cut taxes and to reduce Public Expenditure as a share of GDP Cameron has only said that they won’t if it is at the expense of economic stability. It’s simply a question of timing.
But let’s see what happens over the next 2 weeks. At least politics is really interesting now!