Sunday Polls
Three polls this Sunday, from ICM, NOP and MORI.
An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph finds 52% of Scots in favour of independence. This is a similar figure to that found in the first of ICM’s new regular polls for the Scotsman, but contrasts with the figure YouGov found in their poll for the Telegraph in the week, when only 32% of people supported independence with 50% supporting the status quo. I suspect the reason is due to the wording of the question – YouGov asked a detailed question asking respondents to chose between retaining the present Scottish Parliament, and making Scotland an independent state outside the UK but within the European Union. ICM ask a far more straightforward question on whether Scotland should become an independent country.
ICM also asked whether respondents in England would like to see an independent Scotland – 59% would, suggesting that people in England are actually keener for Scotland to leave the UK than Scots themselves are. 48% of English respondents also said they wanted independence from the UK for England. 68% of people in England said they would like an English Parliament with similar powers to the Scottish Parliament, and 62% said Scots MPs should not “be able to vote on English laws when English MPs cannot vote on Scottish laws”.
Asked about the number of Scottish MPs in the cabinet however there was relatively little concern. 76% of English respondents said it didn’t matter, only 21% thought it did. ICM also asked about sporting loyalties. When Scotland were playing a foreign team, 70% of English respondents said they would support Scotland, with 14% supporting their opponents. When the same question was asked about supporting the England team in Scotland, 48% of Scottish respondents said they would support England with only 34% saying they would support England’s opponents. This echoes a poll before the last World Cup which found that Scottish people would support the England team…which no one seemed to believe!
There are voting intention figures in the ICM poll – topline figures are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 23%, but the article in the Sunday Telegraph suggests they are figures for just England, which is unusual. As it happens they are very similar to the GB voting intention figures from ICM’s poll for the Guardian published on Wednesday, with Labour down slightly and the Lib Dems up slightly in comparison.
Secondly, an NOP poll for ITV’s Sunday Edition asked a series of questions asking people to compare Gordon Brown with David Cameron. Cameron had substantial leads on having fresh ideas (39% to 10%) and on being in touch with modern Britain (33% to 17%). Brown had a very slight lead on protecting teh UK from terrorists (22% to 21%). As ever, the picture these sort of comparison polls creates really depends on the things the people commissioning the poll chose to ask about – we know where the two mens’ strengths lie in the terms of their public perceptions – Brown is seen as competent, reliable, strong, experienced and so on. Cameron is seen as likeable, fresh, modern and in touch. If you ask about the former sort of attributes Brown comes out looking stronger, if you ask about the latter Cameron does. What was interesting was the “Best Prime Minister” question, where Cameron recorded his largest lead over Brown so far (though fo course, this is the first time the question has been asked by NOP) – 29% for Cameron compared to 19% for Brown and 5% for Menzies Campbell.
According to Tim Montgomerie on Conservative Home, the poll also shows that “24% told GfK NOP that they would prefer Charles Kennedy to return as leader and slightly more (7%) preferred LibDem Home Affairs spokesman Nick Clegg to the embattled Sir Menzies (6%)”, though I’m not sure what sort of question or structure this was in response to.
Finally, MORI’s monthly poll is in the Observer. The topline voting intention figures with changes from MORI’s last poll are CON 35% (nc), LAB 33% (-4), LDEM 20% (+2). While figures are not given in the Observer, the poll also apparantly shows a sharp fall in David Cameron’s approval rating.
Filed under: ICM, MORI, NOP, Scotland, Voting Intention
Anthony, when will we receive the figures from MORI on the approval ratings? It seems odd that the MORI poll would have a sharp fall in Cameron’s approval ratings, but no change at all in the CON vote. Combine this with the NOP poll giving Cameron a strong lead as preferred PM (not the same as approval, but again surely related) and it does seem like an odd result to have, even against the top line of the same poll. Outlier or trend?
Philip – presumably when it goes up on MORI’s website. They are normally pretty prompt once things have been published, so I’d expect it to be up on Monday.
Past Cameron figures are here – note that the different questions asked by different pollsters (and in the case of YouGov, the different questions in their Telegraph and Sunday Times trackers) give different readings, so you need to look for trends from the same pollster.
While his approval figures are obviously down since his honeymoon period when MORI was giving him ratings in the +15 sort of area, and YouGov’s Telegraph polls had him up in the twenties, it seems to be pretty steady since the early summer, MORI have trending to put him at a net score of around 0 (+2, -2, that sort of thing). YouGov have tended to put him around +14 or so in their polls (with the exception of the one in July, suggesting he had a sudden temporary drop then, or that it was an outlier).
This one could be an outlier, or it could be the start of a trend. It’s impossible to say.
I wouldn’t put to much store in the number of English people who want Scottish Independence, until it starts to appear on an “open” question about peoples concerns.
People will express a concern on anything if asked, but thats no the same as it appearing when they are asked their concerns. If Scottish Independence starts to appear in the top ten, or even get 10% then it will be a live issue, but not before.
The Labour Scottish conference attacks have been fun, we are going to get Douglas Alexander next telling us it goes against global trends.
Odd that because I can think of about half a dozen countries that have seperated in the last decade or so, but not one pair that have amalgamated.
Although I suppose there is always HongKong becoming part of China
I liked Gordon Browns 400,000 English in Scotland line. Doesn’t he know that there are near 200,000 in France and over 300,000 in Spain.
I am not sure about New Zealand, but Australia claims somthing like 3 million “Britains” and in the last census, nearly 20% of the 30 million people in Canada described themselves as “English”, which works out at more than the population of Scotland.
We also have the 90% of Scottish financial services is with England, but it’s actually less than that and specifically through London.
I haven’t checked but I think you will see similar figures for Dublin, and It’s a bit odd to say that relying on overseas business will be bad for Edinburgh, when it,s overseas business that London thrives on.
Like most Big Gun conference attacks they go down well in the hall but when you subject them to any kind of critical analysis, they crumble. Blair is the classic example, he is still probably the best political speaker in the UK, but if you actaully read the speeches afterwards they are mostly gobbleygook and drivel.
It’s a bit like “Lighter Shade of Pale”, great track but it doesn’t make any sense…
Peter.
Peter – that’s the salience of the issue. The poll suggests that English respondents would be favourable towards Scottish independence, but it doesn’t in any way suggest that it is a salient issue. As you suggest, if the break up of the union became a salient issue amongst English voters it would start showing up in MORI’s “what are the most important issues” question.
(Oh and since you ask, the last countries I can think of that amalgamated were North and South Yemen in 1990.)
Anthony,
Thanks for the Yemen example, i’ll pass it on and if you are lucky Ypu’ll here it used…
Peter.
Had a look at MORI, on a percentage scale, Scottish/Welsh devolution scored….ZERO.
I think that sums it up as a live issue south of the border.
Peter.
Peter, there are other political considerations to consider I think. For Labour, devolution has been perfect – ensuring control of Scotland (at least over the Conservatives) while still keeping Scottish Labour votes in the Commons. Already two “English” votes have passed with only Scottish majorities and at the last election more English voters voted Conservative than Labour, at the next a Labour majority could plausibly only come from Scottish seats. Its in the interests of these Labour leaders (Esp. the Scottish Labour leaders like Brown, Reid etc) to oppose Scottish independence.
As an English Conservative (and I do think of myself as English) that is part of the reason why I support Scottish/English independence, hope the SNP wins in May and break up of the union is a salient issue for me personally.
Philip,
Then why is it that despite Independence being politically in there favour and seeming popular in the marginal seats they need to win are the Tories the most anti Independence mainstream party in Britain.
Peter.
Anthony,
Any idea when the tables for the SNP and telegraph polls will appear on th e results page.
Peter.
Peter,
Because the dissolution of the union goes against deep and historic Conservative principles. There’s a reason why our full name is actually the Conservative and Unionist Party. However I think the wind is beginning to change, I’m from a younger generation that I think cares little at all about “unionist” issues and for whom related ideas like the Empire/Commonwealth are history lessons, not matters of high politics.
Increasingly Conservative politicians I think are finally catching on to all this, the “no Scottish votes on English laws” principle we’ve adopted is a beginning. Not much of one perhaps, but one nonetheless.
Philip.
West Germany & East Germany, South Vietnam & North Vietnam, South Yemen & North Yemen…………..
But arguably these are all reunification of divided countries as opposed to coming together of seperate ones.
On the other hand there are numerous examples of smaller countries achieving independence, and the majority of them are prospering quite nicely.
I must admit countries separating into component parts is easier- Czech and Slovak republics, all the bits that were the USSR… As I have argued before an obvious issue now is the illogicality of the current position (no Scottish votes on English matters); what is needed is a coherent framework for a Union and a federal system would provide just that. But since when has the UK had a coherent, logical political framework…
Otherwise it’s simpler to just say the Union is irrelevant and break it up. Does anyone view themselves as British first? I think noy; we all see ourselves as English / Scot /Welsh first. The emotion of that will continue to drive devolution further and further.