[...] You can find out why today’s poll giving Labour a two-point lead shouldn’t be trusted here, at PoliticalBetting.com, and here, at UKPollingReport.co.uk [...]

Best wait and see what the other Pollsters come up with.

It is only a month or so ago that different Pollsters gave completely different answers and a special article was published by YouGov explaining, or trying to explain, the widely different variations.

IF true than England has a death wish.

Well, Conservatives Abroad may be right in saying that polls showing a Labour lead can’t be trusted, the reality amongst those “certain to vote” is probably around Labour 34, Conservatives 36 and the Lib Dems somewhere around 20.
However we are now well into the mid-term of this Government, it is getting a good thumping from the media and is having a tough time over NHS reforms. The Opposition should be 10 or more points ahead, consistently, if they are heading for a working majority in 2009. It is hard to argue that the polls are heading in that direction, and if you add in those “likely to vote”, things even out more in Labour’s favour.

Well, with respect I think we’re rather losing sight of what matters here: it is frankly irrelevant at this stage whether Labour is ahead by two or the Conservatives by two, three or four - the underlying (and consistent) trend in all the polls is that a clear Conservative lead in the earlier half of the year has closed to, at best, a narrow Conservative lead in the second half of the year.

What these polls all show is that

a) if the general election were held on Thursday, the Conservatives aren’t close to winning

b) that one and a half years (surely comfortably within the definition of mid-term?) into a Labour government beset by problems that should be making it substantially unpopular, the official opposition is at best narrowly ahead at a point where, to offset the improvement in support governments always receive (compared to mid-term) they need to have a substantial double-digit lead to look like a government-in-waiting.

Now, the interesting discussion is why that is the state of affairs but self-evidently something (still) isn’t working for the Conservatives.

As you’ll see from this short piece (http://www.forecastuk.org.uk/2006/11/28/forecast-uk-commentary/) a Labour lead over Conservatives fits in with the medium-term trend.

Adam -

Actually I don’t think that is the picture at all. Looking at Populus, ICM and YouGov, the three pollsters who weight by past vote and should therefore produce the steadiest figures:

Populus showed an average Conservative lead of 1 points in the first half of the year, 3 points in the second half of the year so far and 3 points in their last poll.

ICM showed an average Conservative lead of 1 points in the first half of the year, 5 points in the second half of the year so far and 5 points in their last poll.

YouGov showed an averave Conservative lead of 3 points in the first half of the year, 6 points in the second half of the year so far and 7 points in their last poll.

There have been occassional spikes in the Tory lead above the present levels (think of the 8 point lead Populus recorded in May or the 10 point lead ICM recorded last month), but in terms of consistent leads the Conservative lead doesn’t seem to have weakened, it is representative of the leads we’ve experienced since the Summer (though like you say, assuming a uniform swing, it isn’t enough for them to win an election).

The impression has been created by a big Labour boost after the conference, which seems to have rapidly subsided, the return to normalcy in ICM’s poll after the 10 point aberation last month and the more volatile figures produced by MORI and Communicate.

Of course, we should have YouGov and Populus to come in the week ahead, which could change the picture entirely.

Bluntly is not all this showing what the established parties in the western world fears; that really no-one likes established parties? Given the tendency of FPTP this will take some time to appear, but most recently noted in the Victoria Australia elections last weekend the Greens got their first 2 seats-, at least, perhaps - not yet clear - being the key seats to deny Labour power in the upper house (note the concept you can have an upper house voted for by different methods and with different powers, useful idea for the UK), this result reflects here. Namely, the people actually don’t like the parties very much. They disappoint too often and have a history of being rubbish.

Anthony, sure - I’m using a slightly looser definition of the first half of the year (!) - essentially the Conservatives opened up a bit of a lead after the local elections and over the Summer - so maybe I should have said the “second third of the year”, and it tightened after the Labour conference, since when it’s been bouncing around a little.

I think David Cameron’s going to have to say something more positive about tax cuts. At the moment it seems this is the only important reason to vote Conservative, since any other policy they suggest will either be grabbed by someone else or ridiculed as too right-wing.

Tax cuts? That will read as ’slash and burn’ policies - Tory the nasty party; appealing to the faithful who have not moved on from Thatcher but already rejected by the electorate so many times… And what a gift that would be to the SNP and Labour in Scotland and elsewhere…

Jack,

Given the current situation it might be all they have left….

On current polls the Tories are 1% to 2% lower in both FPTP and the List compared with 2003.

Going for something like a 2% tax cut to make it 20%, might be a way to stabilise what is left of their core support, before they become an irrelevance.

I think the poll that put them at 9% by TNS should be discounted as it didn’t filter by likelyhood to vote, but given they have been as low as 11%-12% on the List and the Greens as high as 8%, things are looking desperate.

In situations like that a crass appeal to the diehards might be all they have left.

It’s clear that with a “thump Labour” mood, and the LibDems in coalition the SNP will be the prefered party for floating voters, and if that also happens on the list, with the Greens picking up more list votes from disgruntled Labour and SSP voters, the Tories could be in nightmare territory.

With the latest ICM poll suggesting the Tories dropping from 18 seats ( 17 if you count Monteith) to 14, then if it goes well for the Greens they could be within about 5 seats of the Tories.

Peter.

Peter, perhaps “appealing to the base” may work for the Tory minority in Scotland, but should Cameron concern himself with that. I frankly care little whether we receive 11, 14 or 18 MSPs in May, it matters little to me - but whether we can win the next general election and Cameron becomes the next elected Prime Minister is a different matter altogether. And “appealing to the base” is not the best tactic for winning the next general election.

If anything the best tactic the Tories could take for Scotland IMO is to support Scottish independence, because we’ll never get a lead in Scotland without already having a lead in England.

I notice that you have not updated ‘current voting intentions’ to include the latest CR poll.
Is this because you distrust it???

Nope - it’s because I forgot

Philip Thompson Says:

If anything the best tactic the Tories could take for Scotland IMO is to support Scottish independence
______________________________

That could see them in government again both in England and in Scotland. As I have posted elsewhere, they may not even need to go as far as to support independence in order to get a deal from the SNP. They may only need to acknowledge the demand for a plebiscite.

Not just the polls, but the man in the pub and the blogger (whether they are for or against independence) are signs of a growing consensus which expects gains for independence parties and a plebiscite after the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.

This, together with a growing awareness of the imbalance in devolution and the number of cabinet ministers and MP’s with Scottish Constituencies, has awoken resentment and envy among English nationalists and we would expected to this to show in increasing support for the Conservatives, UKIP and BNP.

The tide comes in and goes out but it is melting icecaps that matter.

There have been many false dawns for Scottish nationalists over the years and it is easy on the basis of past experience to dismiss recent polls as a short-term aberration So long as we are prepared to acknowledge that it is possible that a significant and enduring majority of Scottish public opinion might ever be in favour of independence, then that situation would have to be preceded by just the circumstances we have at present.

Well looking at the WMA and the YouGov/Telegraph poll today it’s clear that the Communicate poll is a rogue. With this poll the WMA is 37:33:18 - without it the WMA would be 37:32:18 and the YouGov/Tel poll would be spot on. Things may not change much until Brown takes over - the public know they need to make their minds up re Cameron/Brown - Cameron/Blair is a phony choice.

Nicholas - no it isn’t

Everyone wants to use the phrase “rogue” for any poll that looks out of line, I’m still trying against the odds to reserve the usage of the phrase to refer to those 5% of polls where random sample error produces a figure that lies outside the normal margin of error of that pollster. That can only be identified by looking at lots of Communicate polls, and we’ve only got 2 - we can’t say this one is out of line due to sample error, it could just be that Communicate’s methodology tends to produce figures that are far more favourable to Labour anyway, and that this one is actually par for the course with Communicate polls.

[...] You can find out why today’s poll giving Labour a two-point lead shouldn’t be trusted here, at PoliticalBetting.com, and here, at UKPollingReport.co.uk [...]