Labour continue to rise in latest YouGov poll
A new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has Labour on the up again – the headline voting intention figures with changes from the last YouGov poll are CON 37%(-2), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 14%(-1). Obviously we are in a period of flux, and any explanation for the reasons behind the changes in the polls are largely speculation, but given where we are in the handover my personal gues is that we are now beginning to see an improvement in Labour’s position in the polls due to Brown’s imminent takover, rather than the “Blair boost” from straight after resignation announcement.
Looking at the details of the poll, on which man they would trust more on major issues (a figure that sometimes differs from which party people would trust more) Gordon Brown predictably leads on the economic issue of taxation (the economy in general wasn’t asked about, but I suspect Brown would have had a stonking great lead on it). On the NHS – once a “Labour issue” but one where the Conservatives have recently caught Labour when respondents are asked which party they prefer, Brown has a substantial lead over Cameron. He also leads on education, another “soft” issue that the Conservatives poll well on these days.
Cameron leads decisively on immigration, despite saying little (perhaps suggesting it is still an issue that the Conservatives have ownership of, they don’t need to say anything about it, people think they are the better party on it anyway…though of course, once that applied to Labour and the NHS). He has a smaller, but still significant, lead on another traditionally Tory issue of law and order.
Finally, on the issue of relations with Europe – a low profile issue in recent years but with promises to be one of Gordon Brown’s first tricky issues after entering Downing Street – the two ment are almost even, with Brown ahead by only 2 points, 23% to 21%. On the question of the European treaty presently being negotiated to replace the defeated constitution, 70% of respondents thought a referendum should be granted on any treaty (including 56% of Labour supporters) and, if a treaty included such things as the Charter of Fundemental Rights, a permanent EU President and the removal of the veto on policing, justice and immigration, 43% say they would vote against it, 21% in favour.
On the image of the two men we see the normal pattern. More people see Brown as strong and decisive, but hardly anyone thinks he is charismatic. Few see Cameron as particularly strong or decisive, but he is seen as charismatic. On most of the comparisons in this survey Brown comes out top…but it largely depends upon what you ask. You might remember one for the Guardian earlier this year where Cameron beat Brown on nearly every measurethat was hyped up as being awful for Brown. This poll asked things like strong, decisive, good in a crisis, sticks to what he belives in – the sort of measures where Brown comes out top. Apart from charismatic, it didn’t ask about words like likeable, caring, forward-looking, etc, where we know from past experience that Cameron normally rates batter than Brown. The bottom line is that we have a pretty clear picture these days of where the strengths and weaknesses are in the two mens’ respective public images. I’m still waiting for a survey with directly comparable image questions from just before Blair’s resignation, to see how Brown’s image has changed over the last month.
Worrying news for Gordon Brown in the poll is the question of his legitmacy. Only 35% of people think he has a mandate to govern Britain as the leader of the party that won the last election, 53% think he does not. To a large extent these are partisan answers, with lots of that 53% made up of Conservative supporters. However, 18% of current Labour supporters think Brown has no mandate to govern. In a similar vein, 57% of people think Brown should call an early election having become Prime Minister, including 22% of Labour supporters.
Finally, 85% of people don’t like the 2012 Olympic logo 
Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
The LibDems on 14%, could there be a problem here? YouGov seem to consistantly show a lower rating for the LibDems than the other pollsters. But I think this may have been noted before?
A lower LDEM rating seems to help Labour more than the Conservatives when using the Electoral Calculus prediction tool (ttp://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk). Using Con 37%, LAB 35% and LDEM 14% gives Labour a 14 seat majority, even Simon Hughes loses his seat, I don’t think that will ever happen (Sir Menzies Campbell would still be safe); whilst Con 37%, LAB 35% and LDEM 18% gives Labour a 2 seat majority. I know these projections should be taken with a pinch of salt but they do indicate that in a close race the LDEM vote can make all the difference.
[...] The Tory lead in the polls has now, according to YouGov, shrunk into the margin of error territory. [...]
You will get a more meaningful forecast if you put the figures into this site’s swing calculator rather than Baxter’s Electoral Calculus prediction tool whch is falsely based on Universal Proportional Swing .
I understand there was much discussion on methodology of polling at this weekend’s BPC conference . The consistently lower figures for LibDems compared to all other pollsters are certainly caused by their different methodology .
Another interesting poll which shows the support for the main two converging, which is what I have previously predicted will happen during the rest of this parliament.
I cannot see how the total vote for the main three will only reach 86% however. I think the Labour and Tory vote share is probably about right but the Libs are more likely to be on around 18% I would say at the moment.
In an election, on present day reading, 37 – 37 and 18 is a possible outcome which would give Labour a majority in the 30’s.
or maybe 36 – 36 -18 which would produce a similar parliament to that of the last Tory government.
There is no way the Lib support will fall to 14% in my opinion – there are too many Tories who dont like Cameron who will vote Lib and previous Labour voters who are likely to vote Lib before switching to the Tories so the ’squeeze’ on the Libs will not be all that dramatic.
The Lib vote will certainly make all the difference next time, that’s why Cameron is pretending to be ‘nice’ to the Libs!!!
‘There is no way the Lib support will fall to 14% in my opinion’
It is possible that the Lib Dems could go that low if they are squeezed in a clash between the two main parties.
That said YouGov always under estimate the Lib Dems and are in this poll.
I think we’re going to have to be patient with the polls until September due to the change in PM. Let’s not read too much into any short-term bounce for Brown, but rather see if it proves to be more permanent.
I note that, in one of todays Newspapers (The Times I believe) they review a survey of MPs beliefs and attitudes – using a representative cross section of MPs.
The headline read: Tories still not won over by liberal social attitudes.
In other words they are still split down the middle on major issues.
Obviously I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the sampling but if anythine near the truth it may help to answer the question as to why the Conservatives are failing to pull away significantly from the rest. Cameron may be saying the “right” things but the Conservatives are not so sure.
Anyway just a thought!
Appalling that Brown has a lead on tax, having wrecked the private pensions industry and announced the abolition of the 10p rate.
The Tories need to hit him hard on that – a lead on immigration and law and order isn’t enough for them – that’s William Hague’s record.
JJB,
The Tories have tried hard on pensions, but most people hold private companies as much to blame as Brown, and that’s hardly going to work well for the Tories is it.
As to the 10% rate the biggest losers will be people earning about £8,000 a year, while the big winners from the associated 2p cut in the basic rate will be people on about £35,000.
Hardly something for the Tories to make a fuss about, attacking a change that hurts labours core vote and benefits their own.
Which is exactly why Brown did it, to spike Tory guns on tax.
Peter.
So 15% like the logo or were there 15% don’t knows?